Since There Has Been No Leaked Information, Are Regeneration Attempts Failing?
Since Acell has failed and seemed a year ago to be “A Cure for Baldness in Five Years” its seems to me that the only 2 research institutes that are really getting substancial funding are Aderans Research and Replicel. Aderans uses a small piece of tissue that is removed from the neckline…”Cells are cultivated in controlled conditions where they are encouraged to multiply by the addition of proprietary growth media. When enough new cells are formed, they are returned to the scalp, where they are injected and elicit new hair growth and thickness, ultimately producing more hair than the client had before.” Replicel has a way to isolate dermal sheath cup cells and cultivate them. They are hopeful that injecting them into the scalp will cause regrowth on the scalp.
Since both Aderans Research and Replicel are in phase 2 of their clinical trials one would think that unless the subjects of the trial were locked in a room for 6 months someone would obviously have come out and said that these injections are working. If so…investors and inside traders wouldn’t flinch to buy Replicel stock (Aderans Research is a private company.) But Replicels stock…regardless of its clinical studies that have been going on for all this time…has a low volume of trade and is at 2.35 a share. With all of this put together…it seems blatantly obvious that besides the procedure being safe…both Replicel and Aderans Research Institute’s attempts at regenerating hair follicles is failing. What is your take on this?
I guess that is one way to look at it. I am unaware of any leaked information, and I’m not even familiar with the ins and outs of these particular trials. I’d have to assume there are non-disclosure or confidentiality agreements which prevent participants from discussing their results (if any). If they are successful, the results will be announced when they’re ready. Rushing things isn’t going to help.
As for looking to insider trading as a sure-fire way to know if a product is coming to market… good luck with that.
First of all Replicell are not in phase 2. They just finished phase 1. So we dont know if it works on humans. I think you need to get your facts straight.
Secondly Aderans recently got an extra $100M in funding and just got their 350th phase two trialist. So on that basis I would say exactly the opposite. Unless the investors were complete idiots and did no due diligance. Unlikely though if you already have $100M to spend.
Im guessing that these investors have seen something (proof) otherwise they would have saved their pennies.
Also and finally I think you might mean histogen as opposed to Replicel since they are in phase 2.
Replicel is awesome for pet mice with balding ears.
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What seems “blatantly obvious†in clinical trials is rarely so. Subjects never have access to group data (only their own) and companies never have access to data until the blinded trial is ‘unlocked†and data can be viewed after the study is completed. But, as a general rule, when there is an unusual lag time between study completion and eventual announcement of results, this can be a sign of negative results. However, a public company is required by the SEC (not FDA) to announce negative results – or any result considered important to the market and shareholders – in a timely fashion.
Even if these companies were well into their phase 2 trials (which they are not), they could be working on only a small area of scalp or even just 100 follicles or something like that. It is impossible for us to know what they are doing exactly until they publish their results. But it is unlikely that they would carry out a large scale procedure in a study to check for efficacy. So trial subjects may not be aware if it is having an effect and wouldn’t know whether they are a control subject (as the study would be double blinded). You would only be likely to hear something if there had been a dramatic effect on the subjects, in which case, phase 2 would probably be abandoned and they’d head straight to phase 3 (as you occasionally see in cancer drug trials).
To the original poster – You are correct. Regardless of how secretive a company is regarding its research and methodology, there is no reason to not share results, even if in a understated and reserved manner. Clearly, Replicel and Aderans have nothing worthwhile to share with us, yet – which is a sad indication, because 9 (or 9+) years of research effort (in case of Replicel) has not been able to generate any human-centered news whatsoever.
I’m with you – I’m pretty sure that both Aderans and Replicel are done and buried. Matter of time before the stocks get unlisted.
Mark you are wrong as is the original poster.
The people on these trials would have signed NDA documents and have probably been promised additional treatments if they succeed. Why would a balding brother risk that so some know it all (i.e anybody posting speculative crap) like you can get some early news ahead of time… Before they do… Before the investors… Dream on.